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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L13208, doi:10.1029/2004GL020103, 2004

Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation

David H. Douglass

Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York, USA


Benjamin D. Pearson

Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York, USA


S. Fred Singer

Science & Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, Virginia, USA


Abstract

As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state-of-the-art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with altitude until it reaches a maximum ratio with respect to the surface of as much as 1.5 to 2.0 at about 200–400 hPa. However, the temperature trends from several independent observational data sets show decreasing as well as mostly negative values. This disparity indicates that the three models examined here fail to account for the effects of greenhouse forcings.

Received 29 March 2004; accepted 16 June 2004; published 9 July 2004.

Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1635 Global Change: Oceans (4203); 1699 Global Change: General or miscellaneous.

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Citation: Douglass, D. H., B. D. Pearson, and S. F. Singer (2004), Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13208, doi:10.1029/2004GL020103.