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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 31,
L13207,
doi:10.1029/2004GL020212,
2004
Disparity of tropospheric and surface temperature trends: New evidence
David H. Douglass
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York, USA
Benjamin D. Pearson
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York, USA
S. Fred Singer
Science & Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, Virginia, USA
Paul C. Knappenberger
New Hope Environmental Services, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
Patrick J. Michaels
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
Abstract
Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is
not only difficult to explain but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence that the disparity
is real. Introducing an additional data set, R2 2-meter temperatures, a diagnostic variable related to tropospheric temperature
profiles, we find trends derived from it to be in close agreement with satellite measurements of tropospheric temperature.
This suggests that the disparity likely is a result of near-surface processes. We find that the disparity does not occur uniformly
across the globe, but is primarily confined to tropical regions which are primarily oceanic. Since the ocean measurements
are sea surface temperatures, we suggest that the disparity is probably associated with processes at the ocean-atmosphere
interface. Our study thus makes unlikely some of the explanations advanced to account for the disparity; it also demonstrates
the importance of distinguishing between land, sea and air measurements.
Received 9
April
2004;
accepted 7
June
2004;
published 9
July
2004.
Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1699 Global Change: General or miscellaneous; 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 4504 Oceanography: Physical: Air/sea interactions (0312).
Read Full Article (file size: 284512 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Douglass, D. H., B. D. Pearson, S. F. Singer, P. C. Knappenberger, and P. J. Michaels
(2004),
Disparity of tropospheric and surface temperature trends: New evidence,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
31,
L13207,
doi:10.1029/2004GL020212.
Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.
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