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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 31,
L12212,
4 PP., 2004
doi:10.1029/2004GL020244
Quantifying bushfire penetration into urban areas in Australia
Risk Frontiers–Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia
Risk Frontiers–Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia
The extent and trajectory of bushfire penetration at the bushland-urban interface are quantified using data from major historical fires in Australia. We find that the maximum distance at which homes are destroyed is typically less than 700 m. The probability of home destruction emerges as a simple linear and decreasing function of distance from the bushland-urban boundary but with a variable slope that presumably depends upon fire regime and human intervention. The collective data suggest that the probability of home destruction at the forest edge is around 60%. Spatial patterns of destroyed homes display significant neighbourhood clustering. Our results provide revealing spatial evidence for estimating fire risk to properties and suggest an ember-attack model.
Received 13 April 2004; accepted 27 May 2004; published 26 June 2004.
Citation: (2004), Quantifying bushfire penetration into urban areas in Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12212, doi:10.1029/2004GL020244.
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