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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Mathematical Geophysics: Nonlinear dynamics
  • Global Change: Climate dynamics
  • Global Change: Oceans
  • Oceanography: General: Paleoceanography
  • Policy Sciences: Decision making under uncertainty

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L23207, 4 PP., 2004
doi:10.1029/2004GL020972

Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting

H. Held

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

T. Kleinen

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

A method is introduced to estimate the proximity of climate sub-systems to non-linear thresholds. We suggest to measure the smallest decay rate of the system under investigation and to consider its trend. We argue that this is the diagnostic variable most directly linked to the distance from a bifurcation threshold. With the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER2 we demonstrate our method for the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. It is shown that proper analysis of paleo information could significantly reduce the uncertainty which plagues current estimates of the distance from the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation.

Received 9 July 2004; accepted 9 November 2004; published 10 December 2004.

Citation: Held, H., and T. Kleinen (2004), Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23207, doi:10.1029/2004GL020972.

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