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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Biogeochemical processes
  • Global Change: Oceans
  • Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Biogeochemical cycles
  • Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Carbon cycling
  • Oceanography: General: Ocean prediction

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L22309, 4 PP., 2004
doi:10.1029/2004GL021541

Coral reef calcification and climate change: The effect of ocean warming

Ben I. McNeil

Centre for Environmental Modelling and Prediction, School of Mathematics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Richard J. Matear

CSIRO Marine Research and Antarctic, Climate and Ecosystem CRC, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

David J. Barnes

Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

Coral reefs are constructed of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). Deposition of CaCO3 (calcification) by corals and other reef organisms is controlled by the saturation state of CaCO3 in seawater (Ω) and sea surface temperature (SST). Previous studies have neglected the effects of ocean warming in predicting future coral reef calcification rates. In this study we take into account both these effects by combining empirical relationships between coral calcification rate and Ω and SST with output from a climate model to predict changes in coral reef calcification rates. Our analysis suggests that annual average coral reef calcification rate will increase with future ocean warming and eventually exceed pre-industrial rates by about 35% by 2100. Our results suggest that present coral reef calcification rates are equivalent to levels in the late 19th century and does not support previous suggestions of large and potentially catastrophic decreases in the future.

Received 17 September 2004; accepted 29 October 2004; published 30 November 2004.

Citation: McNeil, B. I., R. J. Matear, and D. J. Barnes (2004), Coral reef calcification and climate change: The effect of ocean warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L22309, doi:10.1029/2004GL021541.

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