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AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres

 

Keywords

  • reanalysis
  • temperature trends

Index Terms

  • Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical modeling and data assimilation
  • Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology
  • Global Change: Atmosphere
Abstract
Cited By (82)
 

Abstract

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 109, D24115, 18 PP., 2004
doi:10.1029/2004JD005306

Comparison of trends and low-frequency variability in CRU, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR analyses of surface air temperature

A. J. Simmons

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

P. D. Jones

Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

V. da Costa Bechtold

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

A. C. M. Beljaars

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

P. W. Kållberg

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

S. Saarinen

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

S. M. Uppala

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

P. Viterbo

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

N. Wedi

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

Anomalies in monthly mean surface air temperature from the 45-Year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the first National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis are compared with corresponding values from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) CRUTEM2v data set derived directly from monthly station data. There is mostly very similar short-term variability, especially between ERA-40 and CRUTEM2v. Linear trends are significantly lower for the two reanalyses when computed over the full period studied, 1958–2001, but ERA-40 trends are within 10% of CRUTEM2v values for the Northern Hemisphere when computed from 1979 onward. Gaps in the availability of synoptic surface data contribute to relatively poor performance of ERA-40 prior to 1967. A few highly suspect values in each of the data sets have also been identified. ERA-40's use of screen-level observations contributes to the agreement between the ERA-40 and CRUTEM2v analyses, but the quality of the overall observing system and general character of the ERA-40 data assimilation system are also contributing factors. Temperatures from ERA-40 vary coherently throughout the boundary layer from the late 1970s onward, in general, and earlier for some regions. There is a cold bias in early years at 500 hPa over the data-sparse southern extratropics and at the surface over Antarctica. One indicator of this comes from comparing the ERA-40 analyses with results from a simulation of the atmosphere for the ERA-40 period produced using the same model and same distributions of sea surface temperature and sea ice as used in the ERA-40 data assimilation. The simulation itself reproduces quite well the warming trend over land seen in CRUTEM2v and captures some of the low-frequency variability.

Received 2 August 2004; accepted 21 October 2004; published 31 December 2004.

Citation: Simmons, A. J., P. D. Jones, V. da Costa Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, P. W. Kållberg, S. Saarinen, S. M. Uppala, P. Viterbo, and N. Wedi (2004), Comparison of trends and low-frequency variability in CRU, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR analyses of surface air temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D24115, doi:10.1029/2004JD005306.

Cited By

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