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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110, D14104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005431, 2005

Downward propagation and statistical forecast of the near-surface weather

Bo Christiansen

Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark


Abstract

We investigate the potential for using the downward propagation of anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere in extended-range statistical forecasts. Considering the near-surface zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and the near-surface temperature in northern Europe as predictands, we find that the inclusion of stratospheric information improves the daily forecast on lead times larger than 5 days. The best forecasts are obtained for predictors in the lower stratosphere. Similar predictions cannot be obtained if the statistical forecast only includes tropospheric information. The simple statistical forecast based on stratospheric winds compares favorably to the forecasts of a state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction system. The statistical forecast can be substantially improved by considering only strong stratospheric anomalies and by predicting averaged values.

Received 10 September 2004; accepted 14 April 2005; published 23 July 2005.

Keywords: extended range weather forecast; downward propagation; troposphere-stratosphere coupling.

Index Terms: 3362 Atmospheric Processes: Stratosphere/troposphere interactions; 3334 Atmospheric Processes: Middle atmosphere dynamics (0341, 0342); 3319 Atmospheric Processes: General circulation (1223).

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Citation: Christiansen, B. (2005), Downward propagation and statistical forecast of the near-surface weather, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D14104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005431.