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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L19809, doi:10.1029/2005GL023624, 2005

Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback increase temperature in Europe

Rolf Philipona

Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center, Davos Dorf, Switzerland


Bruno Dürr

MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland


Atsumu Ohmura

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zürich, Switzerland


Christian Ruckstuhl

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zürich, Switzerland


Abstract

Europe's temperature increases considerably faster than the northern hemisphere average. Detailed month-by-month analyses show temperature and humidity changes for individual months that are similar for all Europe, indicating large-scale weather patterns uniformly influencing temperature. However, superimposed to these changes a strong west-east gradient is observed for all months. The gradual temperature and humidity increases from west to east are not related to circulation but must be due to non-uniform water vapour feedback. Surface radiation measurements in central Europe manifest anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback, enhancing the forcing and temperature rise by about a factor of three. Solar radiation decreases and changing cloud amounts show small net radiative effects. However, high correlation of increasing cloud-free longwave downward radiation with temperature (r = 0.99) and absolute humidity (r = 0.89), and high correlation between ERA-40 integrated water vapor and CRU surface temperature changes (r = 0.84), demonstrates greenhouse forcing with strong water vapor feedback.

Received 25 May 2005; accepted 17 August 2005; published 8 October 2005.

Index Terms: 0325 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Evolution of the atmosphere (1610, 8125); 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change.

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Citation: Philipona, R., B. Dürr, A. Ohmura, and C. Ruckstuhl (2005), Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback increase temperature in Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19809, doi:10.1029/2005GL023624.