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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L23706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024701, 2005

The response of the Southern Annular Mode, the East Australian Current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming

W. Cai

Marine and Atmospheric Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia


G. Shi

Marine and Atmospheric Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
Department of Biological and Physical Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia


T. Cowan

Marine and Atmospheric Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia


D. Bi

Marine and Atmospheric Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia


J. Ribbe

Department of Biological and Physical Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia


Abstract

Climate models predict an upward trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, however the consequential impact of this change on oceanic circulation has not been explored. Here we analyse the outputs of a series of global warming experiments from the CSIRO Mark 3 climate model. We show that although for the zonal wind stress change the maximum is located at approximately 60°S, in terms of the change in surface wind stress curl, the maximum is situated at approximately 48°S. This change in the wind stress curl causes a spin-up of the entire southern midlatitude ocean circulation including a southward strengthening of the subtropical gyres, particularly the East Australia Current (EAC). The intensified EAC generates a warming rate in the Tasman Sea that is the greatest in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) with significant implications for sea level rise. The pan-Southern Ocean scale suggests a broad impact on the marine ecosystem of the entire southern midlatitude ocean.

Received 20 September 2005; accepted 31 October 2005; published 10 December 2005.

Index Terms: 0429 Biogeosciences: Climate dynamics (1620); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 1635 Global Change: Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513); 3309 Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408); 4215 Oceanography: General: Climate and interannual variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513).

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Citation: Cai, W., G. Shi, T. Cowan, D. Bi, and J. Ribbe (2005), The response of the Southern Annular Mode, the East Australian Current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024701.