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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L03711, doi:10.1029/2004GL022055, 2005

On the variability of ENSO over the past six centuries

Rosanne D'Arrigo

Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA


Edward R. Cook

Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA


Rob J. Wilson

School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK


Rob Allan

Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK


Michael E. Mann

Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA


Abstract

The instrumental record is too brief for evaluation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and its long-term response to climate forcing. To supplement these data, we use a new reconstruction of December–February Niño-3 sea surface temperatures based on subtropical North American tree-ring records to investigate aspects of ENSO variability over the past six centuries (AD 1408–1978). Spectral analyses reveal that the reconstruction best resolves variability within the “classical” ENSO band of 2–8 years. A low amplitude ENSO epoch in the 17th to 18th centuries broadly coincides with “Little Ice Age” conditions over much of the globe. The detailed behavior shows good agreement with shorter tree-ring reconstructions of ENSO over the past few centuries, but differs at times from other longer coral ENSO records and recent model simulations of past ENSO behavior. We discuss possible reasons for these discrepancies.

Received 22 November 2004; accepted 17 January 2005; published 15 February 2005.

Index Terms: 4920 Paleoceanography: Dendrochronology; 3344 Atmospheric Processes: Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 4522 Oceanography: Physical: ENSO (4922).

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Citation: D'Arrigo, R., E. R. Cook, R. J. Wilson, R. Allan, and M. E. Mann (2005), On the variability of ENSO over the past six centuries, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03711, doi:10.1029/2004GL022055.