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AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans

 

Keywords

  • physical
  • ocean prediction
  • eddies and mesoscale processes

Index Terms

  • Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction
  • Oceanography: Physical: Eddies and mesoscale processes
  • Oceanography: Physical: Western boundary currents
  • Computational Geophysics: Modeling
  • Computational Geophysics: Numerical solutions
Abstract
Cited By (12)
 

Abstract

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110, C10026, 14 PP., 2005
doi:10.1029/2004JC002426

Ensemble forecast of the Kuroshio meandering

Yasumasa Miyazawa

Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Kanagawa, Japan

Shozo Yamane

Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Kanagawa, Japan

Xinyu Guo

Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Kanagawa, Japan

Toshio Yamagata

Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Kanagawa, Japan

Focusing on predictability of the Kuroshio meandering, we have done an ensemble forecast experiment; the application of the method to the problem addressed seems to be the first comprehensive attempt in the community of physical oceanography. By assimilating sea surface height anomaly into an ocean general circulation model in the preceding 40-day period, the observed Kuroshio meandering manifested south of Japan in November 1999 was successfully predicted 2 months before the event. The experiment yields a forecasting skill of the Kuroshio meander position for 60 days in the sense that the RMS error does not exceed the magnitude of the model climatic variation and those obtained from the non-assimilated simulation and persistence. In addition to a single trajectory forecast experiment, ensemble forecasts were conducted using 10 perturbed initial states generated by the breeding method. The predicted states realized as the ensemble members of the 80-day forecast are classified into two categories: large and non-large meander. It is found that the intensity of an anticyclonic eddy in the initial state seems to play a key role in selecting one of the two states.

Received 10 April 2004; accepted 28 July 2005; published 26 October 2005.

Citation: Miyazawa, Y., S. Yamane, X. Guo, and T. Yamagata (2005), Ensemble forecast of the Kuroshio meandering, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C10026, doi:10.1029/2004JC002426.

Cited By

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