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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110, D16306, doi:10.1029/2004JD004662, 2005

Trend analysis of total ozone data for turnaround and dynamical contributions

Gregory C. Reinsel

Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA


Alvin J. Miller

Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA


Elizabeth C. Weatherhead

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Lawrence E. Flynn

National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA


Ronald M. Nagatani

Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA


George C. Tiao

Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA


Donald J. Wuebbles

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, USA


Abstract

Statistical trend analyses have been performed for monthly zonal average total ozone data from both TOMS and SBUV satellite sources and ground-based instruments over the period 1978–2002 for detection of a “turnaround” in the previous downward trend behavior and hence evidence for the beginning of an ozone recovery. Since other climatic and geophysical changes can impact ozone behavior and can influence the detection of turnaround and recovery, we also focus on accounting for ozone variations that may be ascribed to various physical and chemical influences. Thus we include in the statistical trend modeling and analysis the effects of various dynamical and circulation variations in the atmosphere, including those associated with the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux influences, as well as influences of solar cycle. A notable result of the analysis is that for latitude zones of 40° and above in both hemispheres, large positive and significant estimates of a change in trend (since 1996) are obtained (on the order of 1.5 to 3 DU per year). The dynamic index series, AO/AAO and EP flux, are found to have a substantial influence on total ozone for these higher latitudes, and significant influences of lesser magnitude are also found for lower latitudes. The feature of positive significant change in trend in total ozone over recent years, however, is obtained both without and with the dynamical index terms included in the statistical models.

Received 19 February 2004; accepted 11 May 2005; published 31 August 2005.

Keywords: total column ozone; recovery; trend detection.

Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 0341 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere: constituent transport and chemistry (3334); 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513).

Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 1534684 bytes)

Citation: Reinsel, G. C., A. J. Miller, E. C. Weatherhead, L. E. Flynn, R. M. Nagatani, G. C. Tiao, and D. J. Wuebbles (2005), Trend analysis of total ozone data for turnaround and dynamical contributions, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D16306, doi:10.1029/2004JD004662.