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AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres

 

Keywords

  • fossil fuel emissions
  • global carbon cycle
  • atmospheric inversion

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks
  • Global Change: Earth system modeling
  • Biogeosciences: Carbon cycling
  • Biogeosciences: Pollution: urban, regional and global
Abstract
Cited By (21)
 

Abstract

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110, D10308, 13 PP., 2005
doi:10.1029/2004JD005373

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 inversions to seasonal and interannual variations in fossil fuel emissions

Kevin Robert Gurney

Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

Yu-Han Chen

Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Takashi Maki

Atmospheric Environment Division, Observations Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

S. Randy Kawa

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA

Arlyn Andrews

Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Zhengxin Zhu

Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland, USA

Estimates of fossil fuel CO2 are a critical component in atmospheric CO2 inversions. Rather than solving for this portion of the atmospheric CO2 budget, inversions typically include estimates of fossil fuel CO2 as a known quantity. However, this assumption may not be appropriate, particularly as inversions continue to solve for fluxes at reduced space and timescales. In this study, two different alterations are made to widely used fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimates, and these altered emissions are run through a series of atmospheric inversion experiments. The first alteration is the inclusion of a seasonal cycle which depends upon both season and latitude. The other alteration is the inclusion of year-by-year changes in the spatial distribution of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. All but the interannual inversion experiments are run with three models from the TransCom 3 atmospheric inversion intercomparison. These three models span the key components of atmospheric transport and hence can be expected to capture the range of potential bias caused by assumed fossil fuel CO2 emission estimates when interacting with transport processes. Key findings include the lack of seasonal rectification of the seasonally varying fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the annual mean. Examination of monthly fluxes in the seasonal inversion, however, indicates that significant bias is likely occurring and may be as large as 50% of the residual flux during certain times of the year. In this study, interannual variations were little effected by shifts in the spatial pattern of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. However, as the spatial scale of inversions is reduced, potential bias will likely increase.

Received 20 August 2004; accepted 11 February 2005; published 26 May 2005.

Citation: Gurney, K. R., Y.-H. Chen, T. Maki, S. R. Kawa, A. Andrews, and Z. Zhu (2005), Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 inversions to seasonal and interannual variations in fossil fuel emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D10308, doi:10.1029/2004JD005373.

Cited By

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