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AGU: Water Resources Research

 

Keywords

  • Bayesian statistics
  • data assimilation
  • inverse modeling
  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo
  • parameter estimation
  • rainfall-runoff

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Computational hydrology
  • Hydrology: Estimation and forecasting
  • Hydrology: Model calibration
  • Hydrology: Streamflow
  • Hydrology: Uncertainty assessment
Abstract
Cited By (35)
 

Abstract

Improved treatment of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Combining the strengths of global optimization and data assimilation

Jasper A. Vrugt

Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Science, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Cees G. H. Diks

Department of Quantitative Finance, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, CenDEF, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Hoshin V. Gupta

Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

Willem Bouten

Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Science, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Jacobus M. Verstraten

Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Science, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must therefore be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. In practice, however, because of errors in the model structure and the input (forcing) and output data, this has proven to be difficult, leading to considerable uncertainty in the model predictions. This paper surveys the limitations of current model calibration methodologies, which treat the uncertainty in the input-output relationship as being primarily attributable to uncertainty in the parameters and presents a simultaneous optimization and data assimilation (SODA) method, which improves the treatment of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling. The usefulness and applicability of SODA is demonstrated by means of a pilot study using data from the Leaf River watershed in Mississippi and a simple hydrologic model with typical conceptual components.

Received 30 January 2004; accepted 23 November 2004; published 27 January 2005.

Citation: Vrugt, J. A., C. G. H. Diks, H. V. Gupta, W. Bouten, and J. M. Verstraten (2005), Improved treatment of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Combining the strengths of global optimization and data assimilation, Water Resour. Res., 41, W01017, doi:10.1029/2004WR003059.

Cited By

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