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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Abrupt/rapid climate change
  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Global Change: Land/atmosphere interactions
  • Global Change: Oceans
  • Hydrology: Anthropogenic effects

Abstract

Contemporary climate change in the Amazon

F. J. F. Chagnon

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

R. L. Bras

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Deforestation of the entire Amazon basin — the catastrophe scenario — is projected to result in regional decreases of precipitation and evaporation, potentially leading to sustained desertification. However, current levels and patterns of Amazon deforestation actually enhance mass and energy transfers between the land and the atmosphere through the creation of thermally driven circulations. The climatological effects of these circulations have long been thought to be inconsequential (e.g., Negri et al., 2004). In contrast, we find here that current deforestation causes a dramatic change in climatological rainfall occurrence patterns; high-resolution satellite precipitation measurements show significantly more rainfall occurrences (p ≤ 0.0001) over deforested areas. Moreover, a 75 year-long rain gauge record shows a long-term shift in the seasonality of precipitation that is concurrent with deforestation. These findings suggest that current deforestation in the Amazon has already altered the regional climate. Such changes have implications for regional ecosystem dynamics, but may also affect global climatic patterns through tropospheric teleconnections.

Received 15 February 2005; accepted 25 May 2005; published 9 July 2005.

Citation: Chagnon, F. J. F., and R. L. Bras (2005), Contemporary climate change in the Amazon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L13703, doi:10.1029/2005GL022722.

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