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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 32,
L12703,
5 PP., 2005
doi:10.1029/2005GL023209
A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration
Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Institute d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Institute d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Departamento Astrofísica y Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.
Received 12 April 2005; accepted 25 May 2005; published 23 June 2005.
Citation: (2005), A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12703, doi:10.1029/2005GL023209.
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