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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L17704, doi:10.1029/2005GL023401, 2005

Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations

R. E. Benestad

Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway


Abstract

An empirical-statistical downscaling analysis for monthly mean temperature and precipitation is presented for a multi-model ensemble of the most recent climate scenarios (Special Report Emission Scenario A1b) produced for the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). The analysis involves a model evaluation by incorporating common EOF analysis, where the degree of similarity between the spatial structure of large-scale anomalies in re-analysis products and the climate models is examined. The empirical-statistical downscaling incorporates local information for a given set of locations, however, additional geographical information is utilised in the spatial interpolation of the results. A best-estimate of trend is derived through a Bayesian approach. Thus, maps of multi-model mean scenarios for annual mean temperature and precipitation rates for the 21st century are obtained. Positive trends are found in both temperature and precipitation over northern Europe.

Received 3 May 2005; accepted 15 August 2005; published 13 September 2005.

Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1694 Global Change: Instruments and techniques.

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Citation: Benestad, R. E. (2005), Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17704, doi:10.1029/2005GL023401.