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European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium
NCCR Climate and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
NCCR Climate and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Department Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Department Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
NCCR Climate and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
NCCR Climate and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
We evaluate variability, trends, uncertainties, and change of extremes of reconstructed and observed European spring and autumn temperature back to 1500. Spring and autumn temperature experienced systematic century-scale cooling compared to present conditions. The coldest springs appeared during the Maunder Minimum (ΔT = −1 K wrt 1901–2000). The amplitude of spring temperature variations at decadal and multidecadal scales doubles that of autumn and is most expressed in northeastern Europe. The decade 1995–2004 was very likely the warmest of the last half millennium. Anomalously warm springs and autumns have generally become more extreme in recent decades. However, the recent changes are statistically not significant with respect to the pre-industrial period.
Received 6 May 2005; accepted 20 June 2005; published 13 August 2005.
Citation: (2005), European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15713, doi:10.1029/2005GL023424.
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