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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L23819, doi:10.1029/2005GL023787, 2005

Learning with solar activity influence on Portugal's rainfall: A stochastic overview

Paulo S. Lucio

Centre of Geophysics of Évora (CGE), Évora, Portugal


Abstract

The major goal of this manuscript is the improvement of a methodology to predict rainfall as a function of time; how far the solar activities and other components of the climate system are alternatives. For this purpose one makes use of computer simulation environment with neural network and stochastic analyses. The possible statistically significant correlation between sunspot numbers and regional precipitation was investigated, considering thirteen (13) meteorological stations over Portugal mainland in the period of 1951–2004. The data analysis shows signs that the relationship between the solar activity and the climate of Portugal is in any way exceptional. Possibly, the Portuguese climate system (primarily considering rainfall) is more sensitive to sensible variations in solar activity than generally believed! The conclusion highlight the use of solar activity response as potential climate or rainfall predictor, even though the relative importance of sunspot numbers compared to established meteorological factors responsible for rainfall is probably hard to quantify.

Received 27 June 2005; accepted 27 October 2005; published 10 December 2005.

Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1650 Global Change: Solar variability (7537).

Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 285467 bytes)

Citation: Lucio, P. S. (2005), Learning with solar activity influence on Portugal's rainfall: A stochastic overview, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23819, doi:10.1029/2005GL023787.