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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L20818, doi:10.1029/2005GL024164, 2005

Past and future changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions simulated with a global dynamic vegetation model

J. Lathière

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette, France


D. A. Hauglustaine

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette, France


N. De Noblet-Ducoudré

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette, France


G. Krinner

Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE), Saint Martin d'Heres, France


G. A. Folberth

School of Earth and Ocean Sciences (SEOS), University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada


Abstract

Based on an interactive global biogenic emission and dynamic vegetation model, we investigate the evolution of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by the terrestrial biosphere in four scenarios: the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years BP), the preindustrial (1850s), present-day (1990s) and the future (2100). The combined effects of foliar expansion, climate change and ecosystems redistribution impact strongly on biogenic emissions. Total biogenic VOC emissions increase from 331 TgC/yr at the LGM to 702 TgC/yr at the preindustrial, 725 TgC/yr at present-day and to 1251 TgC/yr under future conditions. If the tropics remain a major source region, a substantial decrease in VOC emissions is calculated over Amazonia for 2100 due to the recession of tropical forests in response to climate change. The Northern Hemisphere becomes a significant source of VOC in the future and globally, emissions increase by 27% for isoprene and 51% for monoterpenes compared to the present.

Received 22 July 2005; accepted 12 September 2005; published 29 October 2005.

Index Terms: 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0426, 1610); 0365 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere: composition and chemistry; 0426 Biogeosciences: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0315); 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1632 Global Change: Land cover change.

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Citation: Lathière, J., D. A. Hauglustaine, N. De Noblet-Ducoudré, G. Krinner, and G. A. Folberth (2005), Past and future changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions simulated with a global dynamic vegetation model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20818, doi:10.1029/2005GL024164.