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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Biogeosciences: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions
  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Global Change: Impacts of global change
  • Global Change: Regional climate change
  • Global Change: Water cycles

Abstract

Climatic variability and vegetation vulnerability in Amazônia

L. R. Hutyra

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

J. W. Munger

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

C. A. Nobre

Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil

S. R. Saleska

Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

S. A. Vieira

Laboratório de Ecologia Isotópica, CENA/USP, Piracicaba, Brazil

S. C. Wofsy

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Models of climate change predict close coupling between increases in aridity and conversion of Amazonian forests to savanna. Here we assess the vulnerability and resilience of Amazonian vegetation to climate change by analyzing observed climate-vegetation relationships using climate data, observed vegetation distributions, and evapotranspiration rates inferred from eddy flux data. We found that drought frequency is an excellent predictor of the forest-savanna boundary, indicating the key role of extreme climatic events for inducing vegetation change, and highlighting particularly vulnerable regions of Amazônia.

Received 18 October 2005; accepted 16 November 2005; published 24 December 2005.

Citation: Hutyra, L. R., J. W. Munger, C. A. Nobre, S. R. Saleska, S. A. Vieira, and S. C. Wofsy (2005), Climatic variability and vegetation vulnerability in Amazônia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24712, doi:10.1029/2005GL024981.

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