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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L24401, doi:10.1029/2005GL025080, 2005

A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century

David M. Lawrence

Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Andrew G. Slater

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Abstract

The current distribution and future projections of permafrost are examined in a fully coupled global climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) with explicit treatment of frozen soil processes. The spatial extent of simulated present-day permafrost in CCSM3 agrees well with observational estimates – an area, excluding ice sheets, of 10.5 million km2. By 2100, as little as 1.0 million km2 of near-surface permafrost remains. Freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean rises by 28% over the same period, largely due to increases in precipitation that outpace increases in evaporation, with about 15% of the rise directly attributable to melting ground ice. Such large changes in permafrost may provoke feedbacks such as activation of the soil carbon pool and a northward expansion of shrubs and forests.

Received 31 October 2005; accepted 15 November 2005; published 17 December 2005.

Index Terms: 0702 Cryosphere: Permafrost (0475); 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513); 3337 Atmospheric Processes: Global climate models (1626, 4928); 5419 Planetary Sciences: Solid Surface Planets: Hydrology and fluvial processes; 9315 Geographic Location: Arctic region (0718, 4207).

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Citation: Lawrence, D. M., and A. G. Slater (2005), A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24401, doi:10.1029/2005GL025080.