Nitrogen and sulfur deposition on regional and global scales: A multimodel evaluation

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Read Full Article (file size: 4460347 bytes) Cited by GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, VOL. 20, GB4003, doi:10.1029/2005GB002672, 2006 Nitrogen and sulfur deposition on regional and global scales: A multimodel evaluation F. Dentener European Commission, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy J. Drevet Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland J. F. Lamarque Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA I. Bey Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland B. Eickhout Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands A. M. Fiore Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA D. Hauglustaine Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA/CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France L. W. Horowitz Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA M. Krol European Commission, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy U. C. Kulshrestha Analytical and Environmental Chemistry Division, Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Hyderabad, India M. Lawrence Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany C. Galy-Lacaux Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France S. Rast Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany D. Shindell NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA D. Stevenson School of Geosciences, Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Science, University of Edinburgh, UK T. Van Noije Atmospheric Composition, Climate Research and Seismology Department, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands C. Atherton Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA N. Bell NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA D. Bergman Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA T. Butler Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany J. Cofala International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria B. Collins Met Office, Exeter, UK R. Doherty School of Geosciences, Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Science, University of Edinburgh, UK K. Ellingsen Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway J. Galloway Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA M. Gauss Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway V. Montanaro Dipartimento di Fisica, Università L'Aquila, Aquila, Italy J. F. Müller Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium G. Pitari Dipartimento di Fisica, Università L'Aquila, Aquila, Italy J. Rodriguez Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center (GEST), Baltimore, Maryland, USA M. Sanderson Met Office, Exeter, UK F. Solmon Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France S. Strahan Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center (GEST), Baltimore, Maryland, USA M. Schultz Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany K. Sudo Atmospheric Composition Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan S. Szopa Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA/CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France O. Wild Atmospheric Composition Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan Abstract We use 23 atmospheric chemistry transport models to calculate current and future (2030) deposition of reactive nitrogen (NO_y, NH_x) and sulfate (SO_x) to land and ocean surfaces. The models are driven by three emission scenarios: (1) current air quality legislation (CLE); (2) an optimistic case of the maximum emissions reductions currently technologically feasible (MFR); and (3) the contrasting pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. An extensive evaluation of the present-day deposition using nearly all information on wet deposition available worldwide shows a good agreement with observations in Europe and North America, where 60–70% of the model-calculated wet deposition rates agree to within ±50% with quality-controlled measurements. Models systematically overestimate NH_x deposition in South Asia, and underestimate NO_y deposition in East Asia. We show that there are substantial differences among models for the removal mechanisms of NO_y, NH_x, and SO_x, leading to ±1 σ variance in total deposition fluxes of about 30% in the anthropogenic emissions regions, and up to a factor of 2 outside. In all cases the mean model constructed from the ensemble calculations is among the best when comparing to measurements. Currently, 36–51% of all NO_y, NH_x, and SO_x is deposited over the ocean, and 50–80% of the fraction of deposition on land falls on natural (nonagricultural) vegetation. Currently, 11% of the world's natural vegetation receives nitrogen deposition in excess of the “critical load” threshold of 1000 mg(N) m⁻² yr⁻¹. The regions most affected are the United States (20% of vegetation), western Europe (30%), eastern Europe (80%), South Asia (60%), East Asia (40%), southeast Asia (30%), and Japan (50%). Future deposition fluxes are mainly driven by changes in emissions, and less importantly by changes in atmospheric chemistry and climate. The global fraction of vegetation exposed to nitrogen loads in excess of 1000 mg(N) m⁻² yr⁻¹ increases globally to 17% for CLE and 25% for A2. In MFR, the reductions in NO_y are offset by further increases for NH_x deposition. The regions most affected by exceedingly high nitrogen loads for CLE and A2 are Europe and Asia, but also parts of Africa. Received 13 December 2005; accepted 8 May 2006; published 28 October 2006. Keywords: aerosols; modeling; nitrogen cycle. Index Terms: 0469 Biogeosciences: Nitrogen cycling; 0466 Biogeosciences: Modeling; 0545 Computational Geophysics: Modeling (4255). Read Full Article (file size: 4460347 bytes) Cited by Citation: Dentener, F., et al. (2006), Nitrogen and sulfur deposition on regional and global scales: A multimodel evaluation, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 20, GB4003, doi:10.1029/2005GB002672. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

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