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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Biogeosciences: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions
  • Biogeosciences: Modeling
  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Global Change: Climate dynamics
  • Paleoceanography: Dendrochronology

Abstract

Forward modeling of regional scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought

K. J. Anchukaitis

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

M. N. Evans

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

A. Kaplan

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

E. A. Vaganov

Institute of Forest, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

M. K. Hughes

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

H. D. Grissino-Mayer

Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA

M. A. Cane

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

We use a mechanistic model of tree-ring formation to simulate regional patterns of climate-tree growth relationships in the southeastern United States. Modeled chronologies are consistent with actual tree-ring data, demonstrating that our simulations have skill in reproducing broad-scale patterns of the proxy's response to climate variability. The model predicts that a decrease in summer precipitation, associated with a weakening Bermuda High, has become an additional control on tree ring growth during recent decades. A nonlinear response of tree growth to climate variability has implications for the calibration of tree-ring records for paleoclimate reconstructions and the prediction of ecosystem responses to climate change.

Received 25 October 2005; accepted 12 December 2005; published 21 February 2006.

Citation: Anchukaitis, K. J., M. N. Evans, A. Kaplan, E. A. Vaganov, M. K. Hughes, H. D. Grissino-Mayer, and M. A. Cane (2006), Forward modeling of regional scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04705, doi:10.1029/2005GL025050.

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