Abstract
Forward modeling of regional scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
Institute of Forest, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
We use a mechanistic model of tree-ring formation to simulate regional patterns of climate-tree growth relationships in the southeastern United States. Modeled chronologies are consistent with actual tree-ring data, demonstrating that our simulations have skill in reproducing broad-scale patterns of the proxy's response to climate variability. The model predicts that a decrease in summer precipitation, associated with a weakening Bermuda High, has become an additional control on tree ring growth during recent decades. A nonlinear response of tree growth to climate variability has implications for the calibration of tree-ring records for paleoclimate reconstructions and the prediction of ecosystem responses to climate change.
Received 25 October 2005; accepted 12 December 2005; published 21 February 2006.
Citation: (2006), Forward modeling of regional scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04705, doi:10.1029/2005GL025050.
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