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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L05704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025282, 2006

A model assessment of satellite observed trends in polar sea ice extents

Konstantin Y. Vinnikov

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA


Donald J. Cavalieri

Cryospheric Sciences Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA


Claire L. Parkinson

Cryospheric Sciences Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA


Abstract

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)–2004, and assess and interpret them using results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Most of the models, like the observations, show an absence of a prominent seasonal cycle in the trend values. Both observations and model simulations show that climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is much larger than in the NH and that the SH sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Received 21 November 2005; accepted 25 January 2006; published 3 March 2006.

Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1621 Global Change: Cryospheric change (0776); 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 1863 Hydrology: Snow and ice (0736, 0738, 0776, 1827).

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Citation: Vinnikov, K. Y., D. J. Cavalieri, and C. L. Parkinson (2006), A model assessment of satellite observed trends in polar sea ice extents, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025282.