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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH,
VOL. 111,
C07012,
doi:10.1029/2005JC003408,
2006
Evaluation of the simulation of the annual cycle of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverages by 11 major global climate models
Claire L. Parkinson
Cryospheric Sciences Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov
Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
Donald J. Cavalieri
Cryospheric Sciences Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Abstract
Comparison of polar sea ice results from 11 major global climate models (GCMs) and satellite-derived observations for 1979–2004
reveals that each of the models is simulating annual cycles that are phased at least approximately correctly in both hemispheres.
Each is also simulating various key aspects of the observed ice cover distributions, such as winter ice not only throughout
the central Arctic basin but also throughout Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitudes. However, some of the models
simulate too much ice, others simulate too little ice (in some cases depending on hemisphere and/or season), and some match
the observations better in one season versus another. Several models do noticeably better in the Northern Hemisphere than
in the Southern Hemisphere, and one does noticeably better in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere all simulate
monthly average ice extents to within ±5.1 × 106 km2 of the observed ice extent throughout the year; in the Southern Hemisphere all except one simulate the monthly averages to
within ±6.3 × 106 km2 of the observed values. All the models properly simulate a lack of winter ice to the west of Norway; however, most obtain
more ice immediately north of Norway than the observations show, suggesting an under simulation of the North Atlantic Current.
The spread in monthly averaged ice extents among the 11 model simulations is greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the
Northern Hemisphere and greatest in the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.
Received 21
November
2005;
accepted 13
April
2006;
published 14
July
2006.
Keywords: sea ice simulation;
global climate model;
sea ice extent.
Index Terms: 0750 Cryosphere: Sea ice (4540); 0700 Cryosphere (4540); 0798 Cryosphere: Modeling; 9310 Geographic Location: Antarctica (4207); 9315 Geographic Location: Arctic region (0718, 4207).
Read Full Article (file size: 3468149 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Parkinson, C. L., K. Y. Vinnikov, and D. J. Cavalieri
(2006),
Evaluation of the simulation of the annual cycle of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverages by 11 major global climate models,
J. Geophys. Res.,
111,
C07012,
doi:10.1029/2005JC003408.
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
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