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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L02705, doi:10.1029/2005GL023935, 2006

Learning about the carbon cycle from global budget data

Nikolai B. Melnikov

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia


Brian C. O'Neill

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA


Abstract

Observation-based estimates of the global carbon budget serve as important constraints on carbon cycle models. We test the effect of new budget data on projection uncertainty. Using a simple global model, we find that data for an additional decadal budget have only a marginal effect on projection uncertainty, in the absence of any constraints on decadal variability in carbon fluxes. Even if uncertainty in the global budget were eliminated entirely, uncertainty in the mechanisms governing carbon sinks have a much larger effect on future projections. Results suggest that learning about the carbon cycle will best be facilitated by improved understanding of sink mechanisms and their variability as opposed to better estimates of the magnitudes of fluxes that make up the global carbon budget.

Received 29 June 2005; accepted 30 November 2005; published 24 January 2006.

Index Terms: 0414 Biogeosciences: Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0793, 1615, 4805, 4912); 0428 Biogeosciences: Carbon cycling (4806); 0466 Biogeosciences: Modeling; 3275 Mathematical Geophysics: Uncertainty quantification (1873); 6309 Policy Sciences: Decision making under uncertainty.

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Citation: Melnikov, N. B., and B. C. O'Neill (2006), Learning about the carbon cycle from global budget data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L02705, doi:10.1029/2005GL023935.