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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles
  • Global Change: Global climate models
  • Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability

Abstract

Effect of carbonaceous aerosols on surface temperature in the mid twentieth century

Tatsuya Nagashima

Atmospheric Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan

Hideo Shiogama

Atmospheric Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan

Tokuta Yokohata

Atmospheric Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan

Toshihiko Takemura

Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan

Simon A. Crooks

Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

Toru Nozawa

Atmospheric Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan

Simulations using a climate model are used to investigate the possible impact of increasing emissions of carbonaceous aerosols on near-surface temperature in the mid-20th century. The annual global mean near-surface temperature change from the mid-20th century onward is reasonably described by a model that is forced by changes in most of the known climate forcing agents including an increase in carbonaceous aerosols, though it can also be well reproduced without increases in carbonaceous aerosols. However, if we consider spatio-temporal structure of the changes in the near-surface temperature, an increase in carbonaceous aerosols is definitely required for the model to represent changes in the near-surface temperature in the mid-century, in particular, cooling trends in the tropical and subtropical continents. The significance of an increase in carbonaceous aerosols as an indispensable contributor to mid-20th century temperature changes is confirmed with the use of an optimal fingerprinting methodology.

Received 7 October 2005; accepted 12 January 2006; published 17 February 2006.

Citation: Nagashima, T., H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, T. Takemura, S. A. Crooks, and T. Nozawa (2006), Effect of carbonaceous aerosols on surface temperature in the mid twentieth century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04702, doi:10.1029/2005GL024887.

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