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Read Full Article (file size: 296390 bytes) Cited by
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 33,
L05816,
doi:10.1029/2005GL025148,
2006
CCN predictions: Is theory sufficient for assessments of the indirect effect?
Rafaella-Eleni P. Sotiropoulou
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Jeessy Medina
School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Athanasios Nenes
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Abstract
This study quantitatively assesses the sensitivity of cloud droplet number (CDNC) to errors in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)
predictions that arise from application of Köhler theory. The CDNC uncertainty is assessed by forcing a droplet activation
parameterization with a comprehensive dataset of CCN activity and aerosol size and chemical composition obtained during the
ICARTT field campaign in August 2004. Our analysis suggests that, for a diverse range of updraft velocity, droplet growth
kinetics and airmass origin, the error in predicted CDNC is (at most) half of the CCN prediction error. This means that the
typical 20–50% error in ambient CCN closure studies would result in a 10–25% error in CDNC. For the first time, a quantitative
link between aerosol and CDNC prediction errors is available, and can be the basis of a robust uncertainty analysis of the
first aerosol indirect effect.
Received 6
November
2005;
accepted 25
January
2006;
published 15
March
2006.
Index Terms: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801, 4906); 0345 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution: urban and regional (0305, 0478, 4251); 1625 Global Change: Geomorphology and weathering (0790, 1824, 1825, 1826, 1886); 3311 Atmospheric Processes: Clouds and aerosols.
Read Full Article (file size: 296390 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Sotiropoulou, R.-E. P., J. Medina, and A. Nenes
(2006),
CCN predictions: Is theory sufficient for assessments of the indirect effect?,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
33,
L05816,
doi:10.1029/2005GL025148.
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
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