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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 33,
L09704,
doi:10.1029/2005GL025155,
2006
Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Alexis Donald
Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
Holger Meinke
Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
Brendan Power
Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
Aline de H. N. Maia
Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Jaguariúna, Brazil
Matthew C. Wheeler
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Neil White
Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
Roger C. Stone
Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia Faculty of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
Joachim Ribbe
Faculty of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
Abstract
The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond
10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate
gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days
that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence
daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns.
These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide.
Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management
of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.
Received 13
November
2005;
accepted 6
February
2006;
published 4
May
2006.
Keywords: Intra-seasonal climatology;
teleconnections;
forecasting.
Index Terms: 3309 Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408); 3354 Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation (1854); 3364 Atmospheric Processes: Synoptic-scale meteorology; 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology.
Read Full Article (file size: 2574171 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Donald, A., H. Meinke, B. Power, A. de H. N. Maia, M. C. Wheeler, N. White, R. C. Stone, and J. Ribbe
(2006),
Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
33,
L09704,
doi:10.1029/2005GL025155.
Published in 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
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