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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • Intra-seasonal climatology
  • teleconnections
  • forecasting

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Processes: Climatology
  • Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation
  • Atmospheric Processes: Synoptic-scale meteorology
  • Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology

Abstract

Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

Alexis Donald

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

Holger Meinke

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

Brendan Power

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

Aline de H. N. Maia

Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Jaguariúna, Brazil

Matthew C. Wheeler

Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Neil White

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

Roger C. Stone

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

Faculty of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

Joachim Ribbe

Faculty of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Received 13 November 2005; accepted 6 February 2006; published 4 May 2006.

Citation: Donald, A., H. Meinke, B. Power, A. de H. N. Maia, M. C. Wheeler, N. White, R. C. Stone, and J. Ribbe (2006), Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025155.

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