American Geophysical Union Become an AGU Member
Subscribe to AGU Journals		 AGU Home AGU Publications

Read Full Article (file size: 2574171 bytes)    Cited by

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L09704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025155, 2006

Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

Alexis Donald

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia


Holger Meinke

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia


Brendan Power

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia


Aline de H. N. Maia

Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Jaguariúna, Brazil


Matthew C. Wheeler

Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia


Neil White

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia


Roger C. Stone

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
Faculty of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia


Joachim Ribbe

Faculty of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia


Abstract

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Received 13 November 2005; accepted 6 February 2006; published 4 May 2006.

Keywords: Intra-seasonal climatology; teleconnections; forecasting.

Index Terms: 3309 Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408); 3354 Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation (1854); 3364 Atmospheric Processes: Synoptic-scale meteorology; 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology.

Read Full Article (file size: 2574171 bytes)    Cited by

Citation: Donald, A., H. Meinke, B. Power, A. de H. N. Maia, M. C. Wheeler, N. White, R. C. Stone, and J. Ribbe (2006), Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025155.