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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L05102, doi:10.1029/2005GL025221, 2006

Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool

Mausumi Dikpati

High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Giuliana de Toma

High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Peter A. Gilman

High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Abstract

We construct a solar cycle strength prediction tool by modifying a calibrated flux-transport dynamo model, and make predictions of the amplitude of upcoming solar cycle 24. We predict that cycle 24 will have a 30–50% higher peak than cycle 23, in contrast to recent predictions by Svalgaard et al. and Schatten, who used a precursor method to forecast that cycle 24 will be considerably smaller than 23. The skill of our approach is supported by the flux transport dynamo model's ability to correctly 'forecast' the relative peaks of cycles 16–23 using sunspot area data from previous cycles.

Received 13 November 2005; accepted 11 January 2006; published 3 March 2006.

Index Terms: 7536 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Solar activity cycle (2162); 7544 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Stellar interiors and dynamo theory; 7974 Space Weather: Solar effects.

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Citation: Dikpati, M., G. de Toma, and P. A. Gilman (2006), Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05102, doi:10.1029/2005GL025221.