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Editor's Highlight
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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 33,
L05102,
doi:10.1029/2005GL025221,
2006
Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool
Mausumi Dikpati
High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Giuliana de Toma
High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Peter A. Gilman
High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Abstract
We construct a solar cycle strength prediction tool by modifying a calibrated flux-transport dynamo model, and make predictions
of the amplitude of upcoming solar cycle 24. We predict that cycle 24 will have a 30–50% higher peak than cycle 23, in contrast
to recent predictions by Svalgaard et al. and Schatten, who used a precursor method to forecast that cycle 24 will be considerably
smaller than 23. The skill of our approach is supported by the flux transport dynamo model's ability to correctly 'forecast'
the relative peaks of cycles 16–23 using sunspot area data from previous cycles.
Received 13
November
2005;
accepted 11
January
2006;
published 3
March
2006.
Index Terms: 7536 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Solar activity cycle (2162); 7544 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Stellar interiors and dynamo theory; 7974 Space Weather: Solar effects.
Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 611118 bytes)
Citation: Dikpati, M., G. de Toma, and P. A. Gilman
(2006),
Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
33,
L05102,
doi:10.1029/2005GL025221.
Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
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