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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH,
VOL. 111,
D01302,
15 PP., 2006
doi:10.1029/2005JD006149
Uncertainty in a chemistry-transport model due to physical parameterizations and numerical approximations: An ensemble approach applied to ozone modeling
Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Environnement Atmosphérique, École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées–Électricité de France Recherche et Développement, Champs-sur-Marne, France
CLIME, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique–École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Champs-sur-Marne, France
Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Environnement Atmosphérique, École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées–Électricité de France Recherche et Développement, Champs-sur-Marne, France
CLIME, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique–École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Champs-sur-Marne, France
This paper estimates the uncertainty in the outputs of a chemistry-transport model due to physical parameterizations and numerical approximations. An ensemble of 20 simulations is generated from a reference simulation in which one key parameterization (chemical mechanism, dry deposition parameterization, turbulent closure, etc.) or one numerical approximation (grid size, splitting method, etc.) is changed at a time. Intercomparisons of the simulations and comparisons with observations allow us to assess the impact of each parameterization and numerical approximation and the robustness of the model. An ensemble of 16 simulations is also generated with multiple changes in the reference simulation in order to estimate the overall uncertainty. The case study is a four-month simulation of ozone concentrations over Europe in 2001 performed using the modeling system Polyphemus. It is shown that there is a high uncertainty due to the physical parameterizations (notably the turbulence closure and the chemical mechanism). The low robustness suggests that ensemble approaches are necessary in most applications.
Received 29 April 2005; accepted 20 October 2005; published 14 January 2006.
Citation: (2006), Uncertainty in a chemistry-transport model due to physical parameterizations and numerical approximations: An ensemble approach applied to ozone modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D01302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006149.
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