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AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres

 

Keywords

  • climate extremes
  • observations
  • temperature
  • precipitation
  • trends

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
  • Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation
Abstract
Cited By (70)
 

Abstract

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

L. V. Alexander

Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK

X. Zhang

Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada

T. C. Peterson

National Climatic Data Center/NOAA, Asheville, North Carolina, USA

J. Caesar

Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK

B. Gleason

National Climatic Data Center/NOAA, Asheville, North Carolina, USA

A. M. G. Klein Tank

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

M. Haylock

Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

D. Collins

Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

B. Trewin

Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

F. Rahimzadeh

Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center, Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran

A. Tagipour

Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center, Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran

K. Rupa Kumar

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

J. Revadekar

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

G. Griffiths

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, New Zealand

L. Vincent

Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada

D. B. Stephenson

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK

J. Burn

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK

E. Aguilar

Climate Change Research Group, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain

M. Brunet

Climate Change Research Group, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain

M. Taylor

Physics Department, University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica

M. New

Climate Research Group, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

P. Zhai

China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

M. Rusticucci

Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

J. L. Vazquez-Aguirre

Departamento de Meteorologia General, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Coyoacán, Mexico

A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951–2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901–2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901–1950, 1951–1978 and 1979–2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Received 31 May 2005; accepted 8 November 2005; published 15 March 2006.

Citation: Alexander, L. V., et al. (2006), Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.

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