American Geophysical Union Become an AGU Member
Subscribe to AGU Journals		 AGU Home AGU Publications

Read Full Article (file size: 21000733 bytes)    Cited by

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548, 2006

Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850

P. Brohan

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, UK


J. J. Kennedy

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, UK


I. Harris

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK


S. F. B. Tett

Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), University of Reading, Reading, UK


P. D. Jones

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK


Abstract

The historical surface temperature data set HadCRUT provides a record of surface temperature trends and variability since 1850. A new version of this data set, HadCRUT3, has been produced, benefiting from recent improvements to the sea surface temperature data set which forms its marine component, and from improvements to the station records which provide the land data. A comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates has been derived to accompany the data: Estimates of measurement and sampling error, temperature bias effects, and the effect of limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been made. Since the mid twentieth century the uncertainties in global and hemispheric mean temperatures are small, and the temperature increase greatly exceeds its uncertainty. In earlier periods the uncertainties are larger, but the temperature increase over the twentieth century is still significantly larger than its uncertainty.

Received 2 August 2005; accepted 14 February 2006; published 24 June 2006.

Index Terms: 1600 Global Change; 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change.

Read Full Article (file size: 21000733 bytes)    Cited by

Citation: Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones (2006), Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.