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AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres

 

Keywords

  • ozonesonde trends
  • ozonesondes

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere: composition and chemistry
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere: constituent transport and chemistry
  • Biogeosciences: Computational methods and data processing
Abstract
Cited By (3)
 

Abstract

Examination of ozonesonde data for trends and trend changes incorporating solar and Arctic oscillation signals

Alvin J. Miller

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

Airong Cai

Department of Information and Decision Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA

George Tiao

Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA

Donald J. Wuebbles

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, USA

Lawrence E. Flynn

NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

Shi-Keng Yang

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

Elizabeth C. Weatherhead

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Vitali Fioletov

Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Irina Petropavlovskikh

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Xiao-Li Meng

Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Serge Guillas

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Ronald M. Nagatani

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

Gregory C. Reinsel

Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA

One major question that arises with the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent conventions is our ability to determine that an ozone “recovery” is in process. Toward this we have utilized a statistical model suggested by Reinsel et al. (2002) that utilizes the idea of a trend and a trend change at a specific time and applied it to 12 ozonesonde stations in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The lower stratosphere, in particular, is of significance as this is where the ozone concentration is a maximum and also where heterogeneous ozone losses have been noted. This statistical methodology suffers, however, from the ambiguities of having to select a specific time for the ozone trend to change and the fact that the Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosols impacted the ozone amount. Within this paper, we analyze the ozonesonde station data utilizing the above model but examine the statistical stability of the computed results by allowing the point of inflection to change from 1995 through 2000 and also exclude varying amounts of data from the post-Pinatubo period. The results indicate that while the impacts of deleting data and changing the inflection point are nontrivial, the overall results are consistent in that there has been a major change in the ozone trend in the time frame of 1996 and that a reasonable scenario is to utilize a change point in 1996 and exclude 2 years of data after the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In addition, we include a term for the Arctic oscillation within the statistical model and demonstrate that it is statistically significant.

Received 19 September 2005; accepted 31 March 2006; published 15 July 2006.

Citation: Miller, A. J., et al. (2006), Examination of ozonesonde data for trends and trend changes incorporating solar and Arctic oscillation signals, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D13305, doi:10.1029/2005JD006684.

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