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WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 42, W05302, doi:10.1029/2005WR004820, 2006

Ignorance is bliss: Or seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis

F. Pappenberger

Department of Environmental Sciences, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK


K. J. Beven

Department of Environmental Sciences, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK


Abstract

Uncertainty analysis of models has received increasing attention over the last two decades in water resources research. However, a significant part of the community is still reluctant to embrace the estimation of uncertainty in hydrological and hydraulic modeling. In this paper, we summarize and explore seven common arguments: uncertainty analysis is not necessary given physically realistic models; uncertainty analysis cannot be used in hydrological and hydraulic hypothesis testing; uncertainty (probability) distributions cannot be understood by policy makers and the public; uncertainty analysis cannot be incorporated into the decision-making process; uncertainty analysis is too subjective; uncertainty analysis is too difficult to perform; uncertainty does not really matter in making the final decision. We will argue that none of the arguments against uncertainty analysis rehearsed are, in the end, tenable. Moreover, we suggest that one reason why the application of uncertainty analysis is not normal and expected part of modeling practice is that mature guidance on methods and applications does not exist. The paper concludes with suggesting that a Code of Practice is needed as a way of formalizing such guidance.

Received 20 December 2005; accepted 23 March 2006; published 16 May 2006.

Keywords: uncertainty analysis; modeling; hydrology; hydraulics.

Index Terms: 1816 Hydrology: Estimation and forecasting; 1847 Hydrology: Modeling; 1804 Hydrology: Catchment; 1821 Hydrology: Floods.

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Citation: Pappenberger, F., and K. J. Beven (2006), Ignorance is bliss: Or seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis, Water Resour. Res., 42, W05302, doi:10.1029/2005WR004820.