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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L09708, doi:10.1029/2006GL025757, 2006

Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

Patrick J. Michaels

Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
Cato Institute, Washington, D. C., USA


Paul C. Knappenberger

New Hope Environmental Services, Inc., Charlottesville, Virginia, USA


Robert E. Davis

Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA


Abstract

Whereas there is a significant relationship between overall sea-surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone intensity, the relationship is much less clear in the upper range of SST normally associated with these storms. There, we find a step-like, rather than a continuous, influence of SST on cyclone strength, suggesting that there exists a SST threshold that must be exceeded before tropical cyclones develop into major hurricanes. Further, we show that the SST influence varies markedly over time, thereby indicating that other aspects of the tropical environment are also critically important for tropical cyclone intensification. These findings highlight the complex nature of hurricane development and weaken the notion of a simple cause-and-effect relationship between rising SST and stronger Atlantic hurricanes.

Received 12 January 2006; accepted 29 March 2006; published 10 May 2006.

Index Terms: 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513); 3309 Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408); 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology.

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Citation: Michaels, P. J., P. C. Knappenberger, and R. E. Davis (2006), Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09708, doi:10.1029/2006GL025757.