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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 33,
L13707,
4 PP., 2006
doi:10.1029/2006GL025759
Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, Consejo Nacional de Investagiciones Científicas y Técnicas, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, Consejo Nacional de Investagiciones Científicas y Técnicas, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Climate Diagnostics Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, Consejo Nacional de Investagiciones Científicas y Técnicas, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
A subset of climate simulations of the 20th century from the IPCC-AR4 is analyzed to assess the ability of these models to reproduce the observed climatological seasonal precipitation in South America during the period 1970–1999. Changes of the model climatology in a climate change scenario (SRESA1b) for the period 2070–2099 are also discussed. Results show that models are able to reproduce the main features of the precipitation seasonal cycle over South America, although the precipitation in the SACZ region and the precipitation maximum over southeastern South America observed during the cold season are not well- represented. There is a general consensus among models that the precipitation changes projected are mainly: i) an increase of summer precipitation over southeastern subtropical South America; ii) a reduction of winter precipitation over most of the continent; and iii) reduction of precipitation in all seasons along the southern Andes.
Received 13 January 2006; accepted 22 May 2006; published 11 July 2006.
Citation: (2006), Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13707, doi:10.1029/2006GL025759.
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