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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L13504, doi:10.1029/2006GL026319, 2006

Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades?

Michael Zemp

Glaciology and Geomorphodynamics Group, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland


Wilfried Haeberli

Glaciology and Geomorphodynamics Group, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland


Martin Hoelzle

Glaciology and Geomorphodynamics Group, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland


Frank Paul

Glaciology and Geomorphodynamics Group, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland


Abstract

Past, present and potential future glacier cover in the entire European Alps has been assessed from an integrated approach, combining in-situ measurements, remote sensing techniques and numerical modeling for equilibrium line altitudes. Alpine glaciers lost 35% of their total area from 1850 until the 1970s, and almost 50% by 2000. Total glacier volume around 1850 is estimated at some 200 km3 and is now close to one-third of this value. From the model experiment, we show that a 3°C warming of summer air temperature would reduce the currently existing Alpine glacier cover by some 80%, or up to 10% of the glacier extent of 1850. In the event of a 5°C temperature increase, the Alps would become almost completely ice-free. Annual precipitation changes of ±20% would modify such estimated percentages of remaining ice by a factor of less than two.

Received 21 March 2006; accepted 22 May 2006; published 15 July 2006.

Index Terms: 0720 Cryosphere: Glaciers; 0798 Cryosphere: Modeling; 1621 Global Change: Cryospheric change (0776); 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 1863 Hydrology: Snow and ice (0736, 0738, 0776, 1827).

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Citation: Zemp, M., W. Haeberli, M. Hoelzle, and F. Paul (2006), Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13504, doi:10.1029/2006GL026319.