American Geophysical Union Become an AGU Member
Subscribe to AGU Journals		 AGU Home AGU Publications

Editor's Highlight

Read Full Article (file size: 465393 bytes)    Cited by

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L17703, doi:10.1029/2006GL026652, 2006

Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study

Stanton W. Hadley

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA


David J. Erickson III

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA


Jose Luis Hernandez

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA


Christine T. Broniak

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA


T. J. Blasing

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA


Abstract

Using a general-circulation climate model to drive an energy-use model, we projected changes in USA energy-use and in corresponding fossil-fuel CO2 emissions through year 2025 for a low (1.2°C) and a high (3.4°C) temperature response to CO2 doubling. The low-ΔT scenario had a cumulative (2003–2025) energy increase of 1.09 quadrillion Btu (quads) for cooling/heating demand. Northeastern states had net energy reductions for cooling/heating over the entire period, but in most other regions energy increases for cooling outweighed energy decreases for heating. The high-ΔT scenario had significantly increased warming, especially in winter, so decreased heating needs led to a cumulative (2003–2025) heating/cooling energy decrease of 0.82 quads. In both scenarios, CO2 emissions increases from electricity generation outweighed CO2 emissions decreases from reduced heating needs. The results reveal the intricate energy-economy structure that must be considered in projecting consequences of climate warming for energy, economics, and fossil-fuel carbon emissions.

Received 20 April 2006; accepted 19 July 2006; published 1 September 2006.

Index Terms: 0428 Biogeosciences: Carbon cycling (4806); 3337 Atmospheric Processes: Global climate models (1626, 4928); 6314 Policy Sciences: Demand estimation; 6344 Policy Sciences: System operation and management; 6620 Public Issues: Science policy (0485).

Read Full Article (file size: 465393 bytes)    Cited by

Citation: Hadley, S. W., D. J. Erickson III, J. L. Hernandez, C. T. Broniak, and T. J. Blasing (2006), Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17703, doi:10.1029/2006GL026652.