Connotea
CiteULike
del.ico.us
BibSonomyAbstract
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 33,
L16702,
5 PP., 2006
doi:10.1029/2006GL026786
Large scale dynamics and MJO forcing of ENSO variability
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
A simple two-predictor regression model is developed to estimate the relative influence of large-scale low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics and high frequency atmospheric forcing on peak sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations for the period 1980–2005. One predictor is equatorial warm water volume (WWV), which is an index for the role that upper ocean heat content plays in regulating ENSO variability. The other predictor characterizes high frequency atmospheric forcing in the western Pacific linked to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The two-predictor model accounts for about 60–65% of peak Nino3.4 SST anomaly variance at 2–3 season lead times and suggests about equal influence (on average) of low frequency dynamical processes and the MJO on peak ENSO SST anomalies over the past 25 years. The implications of these results for ENSO prediction are discussed.
Received 2 May 2006; accepted 27 June 2006; published 18 August 2006.
Citation: (2006), Large scale dynamics and MJO forcing of ENSO variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L16702, doi:10.1029/2006GL026786.
Cited By