Loki Patera is the most powerful volcano in the solar system. We have obtained measurements of Loki's 3.5 micron brightness from NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) and have witnessed a major change in eruptive behavior. While Loki brightened by a factor of several every 540 days prior to 2001, from 2001 through 2004 Loki remained at a constant, intermediate brightness. We have constructed a quantitative model of Loki as a basaltic lava lake whose solidified crust overturns when it becomes buoyantly unstable. By altering the speed at which the overturn propagates across the patera, we can match our ground-based brightness data. In addition, we can match other data taken at other times and wavelengths. By slowing the propagation speed dramatically, we can match the observations from 2001–2004. Such slowing could be due to a small change in volatile content in the lava.