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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L16705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026869, 2006

Evidence in support of the climate change–Atlantic hurricane hypothesis

James B. Elsner

Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA


Abstract

The power of Atlantic tropical cyclones is rising rather dramatically and the increase is correlated with an increase in the late summer/early fall sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic. A debate concerns the nature of these increases with some studies attributing them to a natural climate fluctuation, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and others suggesting climate change related to anthropogenic increases in radiative forcing from greenhouse-gases. Here tests for causality using the global mean near-surface air temperature (GT) and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) records during the Atlantic hurricane season are applied. Results show that GT is useful in predicting Atlantic SST, but not the other way around. Thus GT “causes” SST providing additional evidence in support of the climate change hypothesis. Results have serious implications for life and property throughout the Caribbean, Mexico, and portions of the United States.

Received 10 May 2006; accepted 17 July 2006; published 23 August 2006.

Index Terms: 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0426, 1610); 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912); 1635 Global Change: Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513); 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513).

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Citation: Elsner, J. B. (2006), Evidence in support of the climate change–Atlantic hurricane hypothesis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L16705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026869.