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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882, 2006

Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming

Eric P. Salathé Jr.

Climate Impacts Group, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA


Abstract

Recent global climate model simulations for the IPCC Fourth Assessment report show a realistic North Pacific storm track and Aleutian Low for present-day climate conditions. Under climate change, the storm track and Aleutian Low move northward and intensify. These changes shift precipitation northward along the Pacific coast of North America. In particular, precipitation is intensified over the Pacific Northwest. Results from a statistical downscaling model suggest that precipitation may become more intense both due to the increased frequency of large-scale storms and due to changes in the interaction of these storms with the local terrain.

Received 11 May 2006; accepted 12 September 2006; published 13 October 2006.

Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1854 Hydrology: Precipitation (3354).

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Citation: Salathé, E. P., Jr. (2006), Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882.