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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L18312, doi:10.1029/2006GL026983, 2006

Probabilistic modeling of eruptive activity at Etna volcano using InSAR surface displacements and ATSR thermal radiance

M. R. Patrick

Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA


L. N. Frazer

Department of Geology and Geophysics, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA


B. A. Brooks

Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA


Abstract

Satellite monitoring offers a powerful means to regularly characterize the mechanical and thermal states of active volcanoes. Satellite-measured surface inflation and radiant heat flux reflect the pressurization and discharge, respectively, of a magmatic system, suggesting that studying these parameters together may help in better understanding future eruptive activity. We incorporate InSAR surface displacement data and ATSR thermal radiance data into a probabilistic model for activity at Etna volcano in 1996–2000, when surface deformation and thermal radiance appeared to be related in a periodic fashion. The probabilistic approach addresses both the magnitude and timing of eruptive events, based upon a simple physical model of eruptions as renewal processes. We anticipate that this approach could serve as a framework for probabilistic assessment in eruption scenarios with persistent activity and multiple monitoring datastreams.

Received 5 June 2006; accepted 1 August 2006; published 28 September 2006.

Index Terms: 3245 Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic forecasting (3238); 8419 Volcanology: Volcano monitoring (7280); 8485 Volcanology: Remote sensing of volcanoes; 8494 Volcanology: Instruments and techniques.

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Citation: Patrick, M. R., L. N. Frazer, and B. A. Brooks (2006), Probabilistic modeling of eruptive activity at Etna volcano using InSAR surface displacements and ATSR thermal radiance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18312, doi:10.1029/2006GL026983.