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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Space Weather: Forecasting
  • Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Solar activity cycle
  • Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Rapid time variations

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L18101, 3 PP., 2006
doi:10.1029/2006GL027053

Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24

David H. Hathaway

National Space Science and Technology Center, NASA, Huntsville, Alabama, USA

Robert M. Wilson

National Space Science and Technology Center, NASA, Huntsville, Alabama, USA

The level of geomagnetic activity near the time of solar activity minimum has been shown to be a reliable indicator for the amplitude of the following solar activity maximum. The geomagnetic activity index aa can be split into two components: one associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections which follows the solar activity cycle and a second component associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams which is out of phase with the solar activity cycle. This second component often peaks before solar activity minimum and has been one of the most reliable indicators for the amplitude of the following maximum. The size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average – similar in size to cycles 21 and 22 with a peak smoothed sunspot number of 160 ± 25.

Received 31 May 2006; accepted 10 August 2006; published 16 September 2006.

Citation: Hathaway, D. H., and R. M. Wilson (2006), Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18101, doi:10.1029/2006GL027053.

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