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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L19501, doi:10.1029/2006GL027511, 2006

Mass balance of glaciers and ice caps: Consensus estimates for 1961–2004

G. Kaser

Institut für Geographie, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

J. G. Cogley

Department of Geography, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada

M. B. Dyurgerov

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

M. F. Meier

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

A. Ohmura

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract

Working with comprehensive collections of directly-measured data on the annual mass balance of glaciers other than the two ice sheets, we combine independent analyses to show that there is broad agreement on the evolution of global mass balance since 1960. Mass balance was slightly below zero around 1970 and has been growing more negative since then. Excluding peripheral ice bodies in Greenland and Antarctica, global average specific balance for 1961–1990 was −219 ± 112 kg m⁻² a⁻¹, representing 0.33 ± 0.17 mm SLE (sea-level equivalent) a⁻¹. For 2001–2004, the figures are −510 ± 101 kg m⁻² a⁻¹ and 0.77±0.15 mm SLE a⁻¹. Including the smaller Greenland and Antarctic glaciers, global total balance becomes 0.38 ± 0.19 mm SLE a⁻¹ for 1961–1990 and 0.98 ± 0.19 mm SLE a⁻¹ for 2001–2004. For 1991–2004 the glacier contribution, 0.77 ± 0.26 mm SLE a⁻¹, is 20–30% of a recent estimate of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm a⁻¹ of total sea-level rise for 1993–2005. While our error estimates are not rigorous, we believe them to be liberal as far as they go, but we also discuss several unquantified biases of which any may prove to be significant.

Received 9 July 2006; accepted 1 September 2006; published 4 October 2006.

Index Terms: 0720 Cryosphere: Glaciers; 0762 Cryosphere: Mass balance (1218, 1223); 1223 Geodesy and Gravity: Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions (0762, 1218, 3319, 4550); 1621 Global Change: Cryospheric change (0776).

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Citation: Kaser, G., J. G. Cogley, M. B. Dyurgerov, M. F. Meier, and A. Ohmura (2006), Mass balance of glaciers and ice caps: Consensus estimates for 1961–2004, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19501, doi:10.1029/2006GL027511.

Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.