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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 33,
L24818,
5 PP., 2006
doi:10.1029/2006GL027610
Is regional air quality model diversity representative of uncertainty for ozone simulation?
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Laboratoire, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme, Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West, Oslo, Norway
Built Environment and Geosciences, Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, Apeldoorn, Netherlands
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Institute National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Verneuil en Halatte, France
National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde, Denmark
Built Environment and Geosciences, Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, Apeldoorn, Netherlands
National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde, Denmark
European Commission-Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
Umweltbundesamt, Berlin, Germany
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Laboratoire, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, Netherlands
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Health Safety and Environment Department, Shell Global Solutions, Conservation of Clean Air and Water in Europe, Chester, UK
Institute National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Verneuil en Halatte, France
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität, Berlin, Germany
European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme, Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West, Oslo, Norway
European Commission-Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
European Commission-Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
Conservation of Clean Air and Water in Europe, Haywards Heath, UK
European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme, Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West, Oslo, Norway
We examine whether seven state-of-the-art European regional air quality models provide daily ensembles of predicted ozone maxima that encompass observations. Using tools borrowed from the evaluation of ensemble weather forecasting, we analyze statistics of simulated ensembles of ozone daily maxima over an entire summer season. Although the model ensemble overestimates ozone, the distribution of simulated concentrations is representative of the uncertainty. The spread of simulations is due to random fluctuations resulting from differences in model formulations and input data, but also to the spread between individual model systematic biases. The ensemble average skill increases as the spread decreases. The skill of the ensemble in giving probabilistic predictions of threshold exceedances is also demonstrated. These results allow for optimism about the ability of this ensemble to simulate the uncertainty of the impact of emission control scenarios.
Received 18 July 2006; accepted 19 October 2006; published 30 December 2006.
Citation: (2006), Is regional air quality model diversity representative of uncertainty for ozone simulation?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24818, doi:10.1029/2006GL027610.
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