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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L24703, doi:10.1029/2006GL027817, 2006

In defense of Milankovitch

Gerard Roe

Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA


Abstract

The Milankovitch hypothesis is widely held to be one of the cornerstones of climate science. Surprisingly, the hypothesis remains not clearly defined despite an extensive body of research on the link between global ice volume and insolation changes arising from variations in the Earth's orbit. In this paper, a specific hypothesis is formulated. Basic physical arguments are used to show that, rather than focusing on the absolute global ice volume, it is much more informative to consider the time rate of change of global ice volume. This simple and dynamically-logical change in perspective is used to show that the available records support a direct, zero-lag, antiphased relationship between the rate of change of global ice volume and summertime insolation in the northern high latitudes. Furthermore, variations in atmospheric CO2 appear to lag the rate of change of global ice volume. This implies only a secondary role for CO2 – variations in which produce a weaker radiative forcing than the orbitally-induced changes in summertime insolation – in driving changes in global ice volume.

Received 9 August 2006; accepted 3 November 2006; published 21 December 2006.

Keywords: Milankovitch; ice age; ice volume.

Index Terms: 4946 Paleoceanography: Milankovitch theory; 0473 Biogeosciences: Paleoclimatology and paleoceanography (3344, 4900); 0475 Biogeosciences: Permafrost, cryosphere, and high-latitude processes (0702, 0716); 0726 Cryosphere: Ice sheets.

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Citation: Roe, G. (2006), In defense of Milankovitch, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24703, doi:10.1029/2006GL027817.