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Nonlinear statistics reveals stronger ties between ENSO and the tropical hydrological cycle
Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA
Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA
Computer Science and Mathematics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Computer Science and Mathematics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Cross-spectrum analysis based on linear correlations in the time domain suggested a coupling between large river flows and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. A nonlinear measure based on mutual information (MI) reveals extrabasinal connections between ENSO and river flows in the tropics and subtropics, that are 20–70% higher than those suggested so far by linear correlations. The enhanced dependence observed for the Nile, Amazon, Congo, Paraná, and Ganges rivers, which affect large, densely populated regions of the world, has significant impacts on inter-annual river flow predictabilities and, hence, on water resources and agricultural planning.
Received 12 September 2006; accepted 6 November 2006; published 20 December 2006.
Citation: (2006), Nonlinear statistics reveals stronger ties between ENSO and the tropical hydrological cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24402, doi:10.1029/2006GL027941.
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